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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

treasuries fall inflation increases oil going up

Treasuries fell a second straight day as wholesale prices rose at almost double the pace forecast and New York manufacturing unexpectedly grew, fanning concern that inflation will quicken. Demand increased for inflation-linked Treasuries after the reports as investors sought protection from the risk that six Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts since September will fuel economic growth. Crude oil set a record high today. The price report is a wake-up call that's there is still inflation pressure.

Crude oil climbed above $113 a barrel, the highest since futures began trading in 1983, on supply disruptions in Nigeria and Mexico.

Inflation expectations increased a fourth straight day, Treasury yields indicate. Given what inflation is doing, it makes it more difficult for the Fed'' to lower rates or increase cash in the banking system.

SP 500 daily April 15


If we consolidate then retrace to 50-60 and put in a lower high, we could see our next swing low come.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Grains and Food around the world

Thailand and India (the number 1 and 2 rice exporters in the world) have banned most rice exports

China and Vietnam have implemented food export controls

Rice prices have soared by up to 70% in world markets

Philippines must now import rice to feed its growing population

The Wall Street Journal recently reported the worst case of food inflation in the US in 17 years

There have been food riots in Mexico City, food strikes in Italy, and violent protests in many areas of Africa, South America, and Haiti

UN representatives are encouraging the EU to relax their opposition to genetically modified foods

Millions of people in the emerging middle class of China and other Asian nations are demanding more meat in their diets, as they associate meat-eating with prosperity

Grains are experiencing record demand for use as animal feedstock

In the United States this year, nearly a third of the corn output will be used to make an estimated 9.3 billion gallons of ethanol (a lower priced oil alternative)

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