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Monday, August 11, 2008

Master something, knowing is not doing.

Herbert Simon, Nobel laureate: "A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention." Fr. Rohit Bhargava's book.

Just used this quote with a group of technical traders that make no money. After an hour of debating and listening to their positions I noticed that they all shared one thing in common. Alot of information, no ability. They were lacking the ability to execute a profitable trade and manage the money once in the trade.

Simple is better. Learning to consistently manage your trade once you are in to get the maxim benefit is the key. Mastery is not how much you know, it is how well you use what you know. So check your self. Quantify your trades, sometimes what you think and the reality of what you do is different.

Master, Master, Master.....

August 11 S&P 500 emini chart

I am still looking for the close of the 1322.50 target.

Oil is making it easy for this market to move. I am expecting to see $107 a barrel. Lets see how long it will consolidate down here.

Euro is also loosing strength, expecting to see it head to 143 over the following months.

Gold will also see $810 area. Dependant on news and Israel and Iran's ability to get along.

Expecting to see a quite period for the next 10 days and then some break out movements in the market.

Don't fall in love with the upside.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Economy Fannie Mae and Euro took a dive

Ten-year notes and 30-year bonds were little changed on the week after the government sold a combined $27 billion of the securities in quarterly auctions. U.S. mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac posted bigger-than-expected losses this week, adding to speculation that the Treasury will have to sell more debt if it decides to provide the companies with capital. Traders now see a 33 percent chance that U.S. policy makers will raise interest rates by year-end, compared with a 65 percent likelihood a week ago. Oil touched a three-month low of $117 today, easing concern that inflation will accelerate.

In Europe, speculation also eased that the European Central Bank, whose sole mandate is to control inflation, will raise interest rates as the economy slows. The ECB held its benchmark rate at 4.25 percent yesterday. Its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said expansion will be ``particularly weak'' in the second and third quarters. U.S. stocks rose, helping the Standard & Poor's 500 Index post the first back-to-back weekly gain since May, as retailers and airlines rallied on speculation lower commodity prices will boost earnings.

Home Depot Inc., Macy's Inc. and Gap Inc. climbed as the dollar's biggest advance against the euro in four years pushed crude oil to a three-month low. General Motors Corp. rallied, while United Airlines parent UAL Corp. jumped almost 10 percent. Fannie Mae dropped after joining Freddie Mac in posting a bigger- than-estimated loss and slashing its dividend.

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