Forex day trading Chinese PMI expands

Chinese PMI manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May, falling to 53.9 (prev. 55.7, exp. 54.5), adding to signs that growth may moderate. A government crackdown on property speculation is cooling the economy by damping sales and construction, while Europe's sovereign-debt crisis could exacerbate a slowdown by cutting export demand. China may delay raising benchmark interest rates or letting the Yuan appreciate against the USD even after the economy grew 11.9% in Q1. The fall in the headline PMI might be an early sign of a slowdown, but China still faces overheating risks in many parts of the economy. Output fell to 58.2 (prev. 59.1), new orders slid to 54.8 (prev. 59.3) and input decreased to 58.9 (prev. 72.6). The HSBC China manufacturing index fell to 52.7 in May, the lowest since June 2009. Chinese policy makers are trimming stimulus this year after the $1.4 trillion lending that revived growth in 2009. Restraining inflation expectations and keeping housing affordable are two of the government's key goals after urban property prices jumped a record 12.8% in April from a year earlier. EURUSD fell to 1.2264 while EURJPY traded at 111.65 extending its longest monthly decline in 10 years on concerns Europe's efforts to reduce budget deficits will derail the region's economies as the credit crisis shakes the banking system. The EUR fell before a report forecast to show Italian unemployment increased to 8.9% (prev. 8.8%) and after an EU consumer sentiment index fell to 98.4 (prev. 100.6) yesterday. The ECB warned yesterday of more bank losses as the region's credit crisis spreads. The ECB said in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report yesterday that EU banks may see another 90 billion EUR in net write downs this year on loans and securities. The lenders will need to make provisions for losses of about 105 billion EUR next year, which may be even bigger amid "heightened sovereign risks and possible second-round effects of the fiscal consolidation, [...]

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The EURUSD was at 1.2270 while EURJPY traded at 112.63, poised for a sixth monthly loss amid concerns Europe's efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and stem a sovereign-debt crisis will undermine the region's recovery. The EURJPY fell for a second day ahead of a report today forecast to show European confidence in the economic outlook was unchanged in May, snapping two months of advances. An index of executive and consumer sentiment is expected to be at 100.6. EUR has slumped 7.9% this year amid concern swelling budget deficits will lead to government defaults and an eventual breakup of the EU. Fitch on Friday stripped Spain of its AAA credit grade, saying the nation's debt burden is likely to weigh on economic growth. The EURUSD's 14-day stochastic oscillator stayed for a sixth day below the 20 level that signals that an asset has fallen too quickly and is poised to rise. USDJPY climbed to 91.38 while EURJPY rose to 112.63 as the JPY weakened against its major counterparts amid speculation political turmoil will dent the currency's safe-haven appeal after Japan's Social Democratic Party left a three-way coalition government. The JPY also fell after a poll showed that more than half of the nation's voters want Prime Minister Hatoyama to resign. Japan's industrial production increased 1.3% (prev. 1.2%, exp. 2.5%) less than economists forecast in April, the latest sign that the economic recovery may be losing momentum. RBA will probably leave the overnight cash rate target at 4.5% tomorrow unchanged after the most aggressive round of increases restrained retail sales and slashed mortgage lending by a quarter. Loans provided by banks and other finance companies gained 0.2%, the smallest gain since November, lending to home buyers rose 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), dwelling price growth slumped to 0.3%. That follows reports this month showing home-loan approvals dropped 25% to the lowest level in nine years. Investors boosted bets this month that Governor Glenn [...]

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