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Friday, April 16, 2010

Forex day trading room Europe

Forex day trading room. The ash cloud spreading over northern Europe is a clear reminder that one EU nations problems will eventually plague the rest. We are steering clear of extrapolating the effect on the GDP, since extreme weather related effect are generally exaggerated. However, the rumor mill has been swirling that Greece's schedule meeting with EU and IMF officials over the next few days will lead to the deployment of aid. In early European trading, the EUR has picked up a slightly bullish tone after being sold in Asia. Traders will be keeping one eye on developments surrounding Greece and the other on German elections. It's important to point out that Greece has capital to cover this month's bond redemptions and is moving ahead with its US road show (which suggest pre-marketing was successful). So, the concern is longer term funding issue. The current markets rate for Greece paper is unsustainable for continued borrowing, despite the recent pullback in yields, which means that Greece will have to turn to subsidized lending from the EU / IMF. Given the logistical issues before any capital can be distributed, including legal challenges and the fact that many countries just don't have the cash on hand, there will be a significant lag from requesting to distribution. Greece has a choice whether they can wait till all issues have been cleared or request the bailout now giving EU nations time to prepare. Since the IMF will be in Athens on Monday, Greek officials will be able to sort out issues such as lending rates and how harsh austerity might be and, in our opinion, highly increasing the probability that the EU / IMF bailout is called in. The knee-jerk reaction should be EUR positive as the short term sentiment relief should put pressure on the markets extreme short positioning. The sterling came under selling pressure as yesterday's first ever televised election debate between the three hopeful leaders re-introduced the promise of a "hung" Pa [...]

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Thursday, April 15, 2010

Forex trading room eurusd

Forex day trading room  EurUsd There has not been a great deal of volatility for EURUSD in the last few sessions which makes saying something new about the pair a somewhat tricky task. However, yesterday evening's dip down to 1.3546 has since been followed by a strong bound back above 1.3600 levels, and we still remain resolutely bullish until we get a compelling technical argument to abandon this bias. Looking at the daily chart, the double bottom formation we have been monitoring still seems valid, and measuring from the 25 March lows to the neckline (at 1.3590) the target can be expected to be around 1.3920. Resistance levels on the topside are Monday's highs 1.3692, then 1.3800 (50.0% fibonacci retracement level of 1.2457-1.5145), and 1.3850 pivot levels not seen since 4 February. First supports on the downside are 1.3579 (50-day moving average), then yesterday's lows of 1.3546; the back side of the former downtrend should also be a strong area of bids, coming in today at 1.3435.As a quick treat in addition to the daily chart on the previous page, here's a look at the hourly chart as I currently have it –and the potential bullish flag pattern that might come into play in the coming days. The downward sloping consolidation range currently has an upper bound at 1.3665, and lower bound of 1.3540; should the pair manage to break above the upper edge, we can expect targets for the flag around 1.4070 (but the precise target would depend on where the break out comes). GbpUsd After the fantastically successful symmetrical triangle pattern we followed last week in GBPUSD, we now seem to be fortunate enough to be getting another one forming on the hourly chart. Too good to be true? Perhaps, but given the big profits banked on the last one it seems worth a punt, and since the break of the major downtrend back on 29 March, we have not been given any reason to doubt the bullish momentum. The width of this symmetrical triangle [...]

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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Forex Day Trading Room

EUR/USD [caption id="attachment_810" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="FXDMG"]FXDMG[/caption] Here is a 15 min chart for the last day. We were able to take a nice long ride down yesterday and the retrace back up was around 100 pips. I persoonally did not ride the market up as yesterday was a busy day on the phone. This week looks like it can't find direction, and that is OK as long as we get a good consolidation range like yesterday as it is money in the bank with little stress, just follow the 1, 5, 15 min charts. I will be in Hong Kong this weekend but will be back in time for the opening of the market next week. I will post what I see but there is little other than standard Pivot Points (Which I will post 00:00 GMT) each day and our regular EMA's, BB, and MACD. Taking scalps and riding the wave. FXDMG

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