After watching our double bottom come in the daily chart I see that the market has confirmed its previous bottom yet fail to see it as the turning point for a recovery.
Yes, there is alot of joy over the fed cuts, and possibly they are going to be priced into today’s rally off the bottom. I have posted a chart showing the volume, which is decreasing for the push down.
On the daily I was looking for a reversal bar yesterday, and a retracement to 942 over these next few days, 50% retrace on last swing h/L.
If we have an overly exhuberant market it would not suprise me seeing a retrace to 1008.
The 972.5 mark will be the 60% retracement for the ambush set up. An ambush occurs when the price retraces 61.8% and then reverses through the lower 50% retracement mark.
There is price divergence on the daily also looking at the last low and previous swing low, in fact the volume would make you think the previous move down was the end because of exhaustion vs capitulation. I prefer the capitulation side better. Cleaner recovery. This way it could be a long time till the market recovers.
8 million will be a sell off extraordinaire, a capitulation, that is what I am looking for as a capitulation in the classic sense Vs. the pitter patter decreasing volume on the daily giving us exhaustion. ON 10/10 when the pundits on cnbc said it was a capitulation I laughed because of the lack of a true sell off in terms of Volume, not price…..when they are in line then capitulation occurs. It is much lower in this market and with the intervention levels we are seeing I don’t know if we willl see it happen.
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