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US Economics AIG MArkets set for a rally

U.S. Treasuries have been the safe haven this morning as financial markets hope for a solution to AIG's liquidity challenges. As expected, AIG saw its credit rating downgraded late yesterday and that has caused an immediate need for additional capital... something that is very hard to come by right now. Government leaders have indicated that they are unwilling to use taxpayer dollars to bail out the world's largest insurer. AIG operates in 130 countries and employs more than 100,000 people. Experts have said that unless the company can raise at least $90 billion today they'll be forced to file for bankruptcy protection tomorrow. Let's hope for a solution here! Looks like the government will use a warrant and knock out all the stock holders.

What a month, first 50% of homes in the US become the fed's property and next we have a 90 billion dollar bail out of AIG..

Stocks opened lower, but have moved into positive territory one day after The Dow lost 500 points. Time to get back to where we started, remember elections are around the corner.

Oil prices are still falling like, down $4 to $91 per barrel. Looking for $82 then we shall see where it is going. If elections are over it is time to focus more on international problems to take the eye off the wounded US economy. Of course we won't see a 25% decrease in gas prices. Just a dime here and there.....

Hope you have an edge, a money maker edge, we will be having a class in SanFrancisco in October with the Emini Futures coach.

Oil, FOMC and Fannie

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Personal Income and Personal Spending both increased more than anticipated in June, providing evidence that inflation may have prevented those stimulus checks from the having the impact that was hoped.

Bonds and mortgage were off significantly in early trading on the news, but have recovered nicely. Currently, the Fannie Mae 6.00% coupon is off by 16 basis points, but it was down by 35bp earlier. The yield on the 10 Year Treasury Note is 3.94%. Stocks are trading lower by 85 points.

The Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting today and tomorrow to discuss interest rate policy. No rate changes are expected at this meeting, but based on recent comments from a few FOMC Members, there appears to be disagreement amongst the committee. As with the past two meetings, the language in their Policy Statement will be reviewed carefully by analysts to interpret the likelihood of rate increases before the end of the year.

Oil prices have come down more than $20 per barrel in the past few weeks to $125. While that's been helpful to gasoline prices, some perspective might be in order. According to the Department of Energy, as recently as February 2002 the price of oil was just $20 per barrel.

SP 500 daily june 25 pre fed

Fed cut, Europe to head into recession.

Treasuries rose as home prices fell the most on record and U.S. consumer confidence sank, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate tomorrow and keep it low for longer than anticipated. Government debt began gaining earlier after Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest bank, reported its first quarterly loss in five years, underscoring concern financial institutions worldwide face additional losses linked to the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

The credit crisis is far from being over. The market's telling you the Fed's going to 2 percent tomorrow and will say in the statement they'll be in a sit-and-watch mode. The weak-economy type talk is pro-bonds. Today's home-price report is a reminder that the economy remains weak and housing has been a disaster, and we probably haven't seen a bottom in it yet.
Other reports this week will show the economy hardly grew in the first quarter and employers cut jobs in April for a fourth month, surveys forecast. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, reported a quarterly loss after writing down the value of loans for leveraged buyouts and asset-backed securities by 2.7 billion euros ($4.2 billion). Europe is next, England will probably be kicking the recession off over there.


Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent chance the Fed will trim its target for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 2 percent tomorrow, compared with a 78 percent likelihood yesterday. The balance of the bets is for no change in borrowing costs. Traders also see a slimmer chance the Fed will start lifting rates later this year. The likelihood of an increase to 2.5 percent at Fed meetings in September, October and December declined today, futures show.

460 billion subprime, not so bad. Sell more bonds.

Treasuries rose a second straight day as U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell last month and home sales dropped, adding to concern that the economy is in a recession. Government debt rallied even as the Treasury prepares to sell $28 billion in two-year notes today, the most since 1972.


Purchases of new homes slowed to a 590,000 annual pace last month, the lowest level in 13 years, from 601,000 in January, according to the Commerce Department. Wall Street banks, brokerages and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses from the collapse of the subprime- mortgage market, or almost four times the amount already disclosed.

Appetite may wane at the two-year note auction today amid a decrease in bets for Fed rate cuts. Traders see a 40 percent chance the Fed will cut its target rate a half percentage-point to 1.75 percent at its next meeting on April 30, compared with 82 percent a week ago, according to futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade. The rest of the bets are on a quarter- point reduction.

SP 500 daily March 19

After the Fed. Market has been hit with Hammer of money.

Oil will fall a bit, gold will retrace down and we will consolidate here while the bear re assess where the next financial crisis will occur.

Bank One, Discover, and American Express are writing off debt at a faster rate than ever before. Consumer credit is going to take it on the head.

Pre Fed Gap up 20 points

Well we have a 20 point gap up before the open. Fed meeting at 2:00.

The roller coaster will be leaving the station soon.

We have had some prettty large volume going through these past days and today could be the same.

We have some price divergence on the RSI.

Close the gap, rally big off the rate cut news and wathc the US currency dive.

Please save our company Mr. Bernanke, Please

Monday I expect to see the market plummet.

U.S. stocks plunged for a third day, the dollar sank to the weakest level ever against the euro and to a 12-year low versus the yen and gold surged to a record $1,009 an ounce. Crude oil for April delivery fell after touching $111 a barrel yesterday, the highest since trading began in 1983. As mentioned earlier.....inflation, inflation, inflation.

JPMorgan Chase and the New York Fed agreed to provide funding to Bear Stearns as the securities firm said its cash position has ``significantly deteriorated.'' Bear said it was in talks with New York-based JPMorgan Chase ``regarding permanent funding or other alternatives.'' The Fed agreed to provide financing through JPMorgan for up to 28 days. A collapse of Bear Stearns would be the biggest failure of a U.S. financial institution since the insolvency of Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Co. in 1984. LET EM GO! get a correction in here and lets end this pain.


Falling property values has made it difficult for homeowners to refinance even as Fed policy makers slashed the target rate for overnight bank lending by 2.25 percentage points since September to stimulate economic growth and bank lending. Expect the criteria for underwriting to be severe. Bye bye to stated loans.

Treasuries fell, with the difference between the 10-year note's yield and the two-year rate increasing to near the widest in more than 3 1/2 years, on bets Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will stoke inflation. Bonds slumped as oil traded above $100 a barrel and gold futures rose to a record high. Treasuries pared earlier gains as speculation eased that policy makers are considering a cut in the discount rate at a meeting of the board of governors today.

A posting on the Fed's Web site said that a board meeting today would include the ``review and determination by the board of governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve banks.''

The Fed's first interest-rate response to the August credit collapse was to lower the discount rate, rather than the benchmark federal funds rate target. The market is hyper-sensitive to anything the Fed does.

Pre fed levels from point and figure sp 500

Will they go for the gusto, .75 cut with a big market push and take the markets through the two resistance lines,

or

a weak .25 cut that drags us to 1260 and delivers the bull a kick to where it really hurts.

We shall see.