Treasury two-year notes gained after reports showed payrolls fell for a sixth straight month and U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Which by the way puts us behind the Euro again. We will see a pull back on the euro but am expecting to hit new highs.
The 62,000 drop in payrolls was more than forecast, and followed a revised 62,000 decline in May that was greater than initially reported, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate remained at 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most in two decades. The drop in payrolls in each month of the year is the longest streak since 2001-2002. The economy shed jobs for 14 months beginning March 2001, the same month it entered a recession.
Some analysts and investors are reversing predictions that the worst of the credit-market contraction is over after more than $400 billion of writedowns and losses by the world's largest financial institutions. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last month increased its quarterly loss estimate for Merrill Lynch & Co. and more than doubled its prediction for Merrill's subprime writedown, to $5.4 billion.
Citigroup Inc. and Merrill had their second-quarter earnings estimates cut yesterday by Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney on expectations of writedowns related to the subprime market and bond-insurer downgrades. Crude oil futures touched a record above $145 a barrel in New York on concern conflict with Iran would cut oil supplies.
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