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Thursday, November 6, 2008

S&P 500 and the economy, Europe rates down, too late.

government report tomorrow is forecast by economists to show payrolls shrank by 200,000 workers, the most in five years. It seems that the market is struggling to find the right balance between positioning for Friday's employment report and setting up for next week's Treasury refunding.

The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 1.5 percentage points today, more than anticipated, to 3 percent, the lowest level since 1955. The European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and central banks in Denmark and the Czech Republic also lowered rates.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 100 percent probability policy makers will lower the target rate for overnight bank loans by at least a half-percentage point at their meeting Dec. 16. Traders saw 22 percent odds the Fed could drop the rate to 0.25 percent, compared with no chance yesterday. The central bank reduced the rate by 1 percentage point last month in two cuts.

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