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Thursday, January 21, 2010

S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Friday January 22, 2010

S&P 500 Emini Futures Day Trading THE GAP
S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Friday January 22, 2010
S&P Emini 500 Futures had no gap today, but had  a big drop on huge volume.  The price drop was a convincing bearish move, that came within a tick of filling the open gap from the Thursday, December 31 close of 1110.50.  That's close enough to call the gap filled.  All indications point to further downward movement in the index.  Volume on the day was a robust 3.4 million contracts, and the range was more than double the 14 day average true range at 27.5 points deep.  The close came at the low end of the range, indicating a further decline is possible if the index breaks the 1110.50 level in the morning.  If positive earnings reports come from GOOG, some of the prominent financial companies this evening, or from GE tomorrow pre market, the index could bounce before resuming any correction to the down side.  A good measure of how far down a possible correction my go can be gleaned from the open gaps beneath the current prices.  The lowest lies at 902.00 from last July.  That's a big drop from here, but 10 months of upward market movement can be erased relatively quickly.


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Forex trading EURUSD sells as republicans win Mass. US equities head lower.

The JPY has weakened markedly overnight after strong Chinese continued to suggest robust economic conditions prevail. China's Real GDP in Q4 was an astonishing annualized rate of 10.7% (10.5% expected) and there were upward revisions to the Q3 data from 8.9% YoY to 9.1%. In addition, Retail Sales surged to 17.5% YoY (16.3% expected), and CPI jumped to 1.9% YoY from 0.6% levels seen last month. So far, USDJPY has traded up to 91.66 highs as the data soothed some of the effects of recent bouts of risk aversion. Nevertheless, considerable concerns are still weighing on the market's sentiment and keeping the USD elevated. Yesterday's earnings releases failed to inspire, with Morgan Stanley missing estimates by a significant margin (profits of 14 cents per share against expectations for 41.5 cents per share), dragging US equities lower. The USD has also been boosted by a Republican victory in the election for the Massachusetts senator vacancy; the win means that the Democrats no longer have the 60 votes required to automatically pass their healthcare bill, and indeed the prospect of political stalemate reduces the likelihood of further fiscal stimulus (stimulus that would likely weigh on the USD). The high demand for USDs has left NZDUSD still languishing around 0.7200 levels (after falling over 2.5% yesterday post-CPI) despite better than expected Retail Sales data overnight which came out at 0.8% MoM (consensus 0.5%). One of the main events of the coming session will be the release of the BoC Monetary Policy Report, followed up with the usual press conference with central bank Governor Carney. Yesterday's CPI was a subdued -0.3% MoM (vs. consensus -0.1%), a release that has reduced the odds that the BoC will cast off its conditional rate pledge before the end of Q2. The data pushed USDCAD to test major resistance at 1.0500 (1.0493 the high), and we remain vigilant of Governor Carney repeated any mentions of currency intervention in his press conference whic [...]

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Forex trading - dollar still stengthening against Euro Jan 21

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The yen fell after a report from China showed economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace since 2007, damping demand for Japan's currency as a haven. The yen dropped the most against the Australian dollar among the 16 major currencies on speculation Japan's central bank will keep interest rates close to zero as the economy struggles to gain momentum. The yen slipped to 83.44 per Australian dollar as of 7:57 a.m. in London from 83.04 in New York yesterday. It depreciated to 128.95 per euro from 128.68, and was at 91.52 per dollar from 91.24.
The euro was near the weakest in five months against the dollar after the cost to protect Greek bonds from default reached a record. The euro traded at $1.4088 versus the dollar from $1.4106 yesterday, after earlier dropping to $1.4068, the lowest since Aug. 18. Gold declined for a second day in London, falling to the lowest in more than two weeks, as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Gold for immediate delivery fell $5.10, or 0.5 percent, to $1,105.95 an ounce at 9:43 a.m. local time, the lowest since Jan. 4. The metal dropped 2.4 percent yesterday. Bullion for February delivery was 0.7 percent lower at $1,105.30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division.


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