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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Thursday January 28, 2010

                                S&P 500 Emini Futures Day Trading THE GAP
S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Thursday January 28, 2010
S&P Emini 500 Futures spent the day responding to various news events.  The index finished up 5.50 points on above average volume.  Today's action essentially neutralized yesterday's down day, and gave the Emini's the first up day in the last six days.  Tomorrow may bring more news driven action.  The always important jobs reports are due pre market, and there may be reaction to the President's State of the Union address this evening.  Watch for a close below the 50 period moving average, 1087, as a bearish signal.  Below that level the next support would fall at 1050.  Next would then be down to 1013.  That's where support can be expected at the 200 day moving average.


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Forex Support and resistance

Speculation the global economic recovery is slowing spurred demand for Japan's currency as a refuge. The yen advanced against all of its 16 major counterparts before a report today forecast to show German consumer prices fell this month, signaling Europe's largest economy is struggling to exit from recession. German consumer prices, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, fell 0.4 percent this month after rising 0.9 percent in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey before the Federal Statistics Office releases the data today.  The yen climbed to 125.52 per euro as of 6:49 a.m. in London from 126.16 yesterday in New York. It earlier rose to 125.30, the strongest level since April 28. The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen on concern the Federal Reserve will maintain its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period" when it ends a two-day policy meeting today. Japan's currency advanced to 89.25 per dollar from 89.65, after reaching 89.14, the strongest since Dec. 18. The euro was little changed at $1.4059 from $1.4072. The Fed should keep its key overnight rate in a range of between zero and 0.25 percent today. Futures in Chicago show traders have been cutting bets the Fed will raise its target rate by June. The odds for an increase of at least 25 basis points were 21 percent, down from 26 percent odds a week ago.

Forex resistance & support

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Forex trading london open to NY open Jan 27

AUDUSD is slightly higher today (touching a high of 0.9045) after fourth quarter CPI came out stronger than expected at an annualized pace of 2.1%; above the RBA's inflation target of 2-3%. Markets are now pricing in a 73% chance of another 25bp hike when the RBA convenes on 2nd Feb, which if realized would represent the fourth rate rise in as many meetings. The JPY is also stronger today as risk appetite remains nervous about the risk of China tightening policy, and reports of artillery fire between North and South Korea also briefly weighed on USDJPY and EURJPY. JPY bulls will also be encouraged by comments yesterday from Japan's PM Hatoyama that there were no immediate plans to counter the recent strength of the JPY. In the meantime, Asian equities have had a mixed session after their 7 day slide; it is likely most traders will be wary ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting. Yesterday's US data was encouraging on the whole; the Case Shiller home price index showed a modest gain (albeit lower than forecasts), consumer confidence rose significantly to 55.9 against expectations for a 53.5 reading, and the Richmond Fed clawed its way up to -2 from last month's -4 level. Fed policy makers are extremely unlikely to make any change to the current level of Fed Funds tonight, but clearly it will be important to see whether they signal a future policy path that is misaligned with current market pricing. Today we will also get Barack Obama's scheduled State of the Union address; likely to garner increased attention given the profound impact on financial markets he had last week when announcing plans for reforming the banking system. In the morning session we will get the latest German CPI figures for January; expected to rise once again to +1.0% YoY (from 0.9% last month). It has been suggested that markets are starting to speculate that the ECB may begin monetary tightening before the Fed, and any economic data to support this scenario is likely to be supportiv [...]

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EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.4240 1.6340 91.10 1.0550
1.4160 1.6240 90.30 1.0510
1.4100 1.6170 89.90 1.0440