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Friday, May 2, 2008

Treasuries and jobless rate


Treasuries fell pushing the two-year note's yield to the highest since January, after a smaller-than- forecast loss of U.S. jobs in April led traders to bet the Federal Reserve will stop lowering borrowing costs. Two-year notes were on course for a third straight weekly decline amid speculation the Fed's rate cut this week will be its last. The two-year note yield rose to within 1.36 percentage points of 10-year rates, the closest in more than three months. The central bank has slashed its main rate a total of 3.25 percentage points since September to support the economy.
U.S. employers eliminated 20,000 jobs in April, after a decrease of 81,000 in March, the Labor Department said. The U.S. hasn't lost jobs for four straight months since 2003. The jobless rate fell to 5 percent, from 5.1 percent in March.
Traders see an 84 percent chance the Fed will leave its target rate for overnight loans between banks at 2 percent at its next scheduled meeting on June 25, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. That likelihood has risen from 80 percent yesterday. The rest of the bets are for the Fed to cut the rate to 1.75 percent.

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