Day trading and the Economy from S&P 500 emini futures day trading coach

U.S. consumer spending tumbled in September and a purchasing managers' survey showed the biggest deterioration since 1968, foreshadowing a deepening economic slump. Consumers have thrown in the towel it seems. Some economists think that they have no choice but to cut back on spending in a very big way. There is speculation that this is going to be a fairly deep, long recession.

Job losses, increases in food and fuel costs and falling property values brought an end to the longest expansion in spending on record and made the economy the most important issue in next week's presidential election. The collapse in lending and sentiment this month indicate Americans will keep retrenching.

Treasuries rose, with two-year notes headed for the best month since February, as slowed consumer spending added to speculation the U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate and boosted demand for the safest assets. U.S. debt gained after a government report showed personal spending fell 0.3 percent in September, more than forecast, and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation cooled.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent probability the Fed will reduce its target rate to 0.5 percent at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds a week ago were zero. The rest of the bets are for a quarter-percentage point reduction.

Treasuries fall and Freddie and Fannie are saved

Treasuries fell for a second day before a record sale of two-year notes as concern dropped that financial companies' losses will widen, easing the haven appeal of government debt. What seems to be overhanging the market is the perception that the Fed wants to increase the rates. In fact, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday the central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' to prevent price expectations from getting out of control.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 61 percent chance the central bank will increase the target rate for overnight bank lending by at least a quarter-percentage point, up from 25 percent odds a week ago.

Inflation expectations have fallen in the past two-and-a- half weeks as the cost of a barrel of oil has dropped about 15 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, Treasuries indicated.
The House of Representatives is set to vote today on the rescue plan for mortgage-finance companies Fannie and Freddie. The central bank's Board of Governors on July 13 authorized the New York Fed to lend directly to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to meet their liquidity needs if necessary.

Treasuries, Bonds and bail out.

Treasuries fell as Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' and traders prepared for the sale of $58 billion in government debt this week.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to revive U.S. mortgage financing depends on investors buying the same kind of bonds they're shunning in Europe. Paulson wants to create a version of Europe's market for covered bonds in the U.S. just as sales of the debt have fallen to a six-month low and prices have dropped 2.5 percent this year. While the securities are backed by loans and bank assets to get AAA ratings, most are valued, on average, as if they were three levels lower. As I have mentioned before the insurers for these bonds are ll going under. This could be our next crisis.

Developing a U.S. market for the securities is the latest of Paulson's initiatives to revive lending among banks crippled by $452 billion of credit losses and writedowns. His plan for a ``SuperSIV'' to bail out the $400 billion market for structured investment vehicles(What planet is our government from?) failed last year after Wall Street firms rescued the credit funds independently. Both Democratic and Republican senators are looking for changes in the Treasury secretary's proposal this month to shore up home lending by allowing the government to buy stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Not as bad as thought sparks a small rally

Bank of America, now the biggest U.S. consumer bank and home lender, said second-quarter profit fell less than analysts estimated. BofA said net income declined 41% to $3.41 billion from $5.76 billion a year earlier. That beat estimates.

We still have Wachovia and WaMu earnings ahead of us this week, but four of the nation's five biggest banks have now reported better-than-estimated results, sparking a rally in financial shares.
These are some at risk institutions: Downey Financial, Corus Bankshares, Doral Financial, FirstFed of Santa Monica, Oriental Financial, BankUnited Financial, BFC Financial, First BanCorp, Flagstar Bancorp of Troy, Mich., Santander BanCorp of Puerto Rico, and Washington Mutual Inc. (WM) of Seattle. Read more at http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/REG/278316415

The 10-yr bond is up to 4.09%. We have $56 billion in Treasury supply this week (2-yr, 5-yr, and 20-yr Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), but the only data today is Leading Economic Indicators at 7AM PST, expected to show a decrease of 0.1%.

Tomorrow brings the July Richmond manufacturing index, the May house price index, and on Wednesday we'll see the Fed's beige book follow on Wednesday. Thursday brings both weekly initial unemployment claims and June existing home sales. Lastly, Friday brings June durable goods orders, the final-July US consumer confidence report, and June new home sales.

Treasury could buy Fanniew Mae and Freddie Mac

Treasuries gained as stocks fell, led by financial companies, highlighting rising concern that problems for the U.S. banking system may be worsening. U.S. stocks fell, sending financial shares to their lowest level since October 1998, on heightened concern that bank failures will spread. Washington Mutual Inc. posted its biggest drop ever and National City Corp. tumbled to a 24-year low after last week's collapse of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. spurred speculation that more regional banks may be short of capital.

Treasuries initially declined, pushing the yield on the 10- year note to the highest in almost two weeks, after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson put a plan before Congress to provide support to Fannie and Freddie, the government-sponsored enterprises that purchase or finance almost half of the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages.

There are some that feel that the U.S. Treasury Department's plan to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is an unmitigated disaster and the largest U.S. mortgage lenders are basically insolvent. Some bet that Fannie Mae shares will keep tumbling. Fannie Mae's market value is now about $10 billion, down from $38.9 billion at the end of 2007. Freddie Mac's market value has shrunk to about $5 billion from $22 billion at the end of last year.

July 3 SP 500 up 2.75 before the three day weekend

Treasury two-year notes gained after reports showed payrolls fell for a sixth straight month and U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Which by the way puts us behind the Euro again. We will see a pull back on the euro but am expecting to hit new highs.

The 62,000 drop in payrolls was more than forecast, and followed a revised 62,000 decline in May that was greater than initially reported, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate remained at 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most in two decades. The drop in payrolls in each month of the year is the longest streak since 2001-2002. The economy shed jobs for 14 months beginning March 2001, the same month it entered a recession.
Some analysts and investors are reversing predictions that the worst of the credit-market contraction is over after more than $400 billion of writedowns and losses by the world's largest financial institutions. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last month increased its quarterly loss estimate for Merrill Lynch & Co. and more than doubled its prediction for Merrill's subprime writedown, to $5.4 billion.

Citigroup Inc. and Merrill had their second-quarter earnings estimates cut yesterday by Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney on expectations of writedowns related to the subprime market and bond-insurer downgrades. Crude oil futures touched a record above $145 a barrel in New York on concern conflict with Iran would cut oil supplies.

Economic News

U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Rise to 29-Year High. According to the Mortgage Banker's Association, new foreclosures rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.99 percent of all U.S. home loans, the total inventroy of homes in foreclosure increased to 2.47 percent and the delinquency rate, loans with one or more payments overdue, grew to 6.35 percent.
Rates on 30-year mortgages edged up last week to the highest level since March as investors worried about inflation threats. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.09 percent, compared with 6.08 percent the previous week. It was the highest mark for 30-year mortgages in 12 weeks since averaging 6.13 percent the week of March 16.

U.S. Payrolls -49K, Unemployment Rate Climbs to 5.5%, after payrolls fell 28,000 in April and 88,000 in March. The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a separate survey of households, jumped 0.5 percentage point to 5.5%, its highest level since October 2004.
Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount: Lenders Dumping Bad Loans at Discount; Regulators See Losses Continuing. Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums, which in turn could lead to billions of dollars in fresh losses.

Household Net Worth Fell 2.9% in 1Q08, the Most in 5 Years. According to our Federal Reserve, stock-market losses and falling home values in the first three months of this year led to the largest quarterly drop in the net wealth of American households since 2002.
Standard & Poor's said the number of entities at risk of having their ratings cut hit a new record of in May as a "material slowdown" in housing and consumer activity amid still-tightening lending conditions continues to deteriorate credit quality.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. last week dropped to the lowest level in six years, reflecting less refinancing as interest rates jumped.
ReconTrust, a unit of Countrywide, filed a notice of default on a $4.8 million Countrywide loan backed by Ed McMahon's home, who is $644,000 in arrears.


Goldman, the most profitable securities dealer, and Lehman, the top-ranked bond research firm in Institutional Investor's annual survey for eight years, bet the economy is too weak to spark runaway inflation and an increase in the Federal Reserve's target interest-rate for overnight loans between banks. Though futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 67 percent chance policy makers will boost the fed funds rate by year-end, they haven't started to raise borrowing costs with growth below an annualized 2 percent rate since 1980. The capital markets are underestimating how sluggish the economy is going to be. Any tightening priced into the fed funds futures market is premature at this stage of the game.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in an address June 4 at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that data showing the public expects price increases to accelerate is a ``significant concern'' for the central bank.

The case for an increase became weaker on June 6, as the Labor Department said that the unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent in April. The gain was the biggest since February 1986. The economy is not performing at a rate that even remotely suggests they should raise interest rates along the lines that the markets are implying.

The Only way we will get oil under control is to raise Intrest Rates. Protect the dollar.

Treasuries and Euro

U.S. Treasuries fell, pushing two-year yields to the highest level in a week, as a bigger-than-forecast increase in a measure of retail sales bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next month. Two-year notes led declines as traders bet the Fed's seven rate cuts since September will help the economy emerge from the biggest housing slump since the Great Depression. Import prices rose more than expected last month as the dollar set a record low against the euro.

The yield on the 30-year bond rose 7 basis points to 4.61 percent as oil reached $126.98 a barrel, a record high. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.5 percent in April, after a 0.4 percent climb in March, the government said. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 92 percent chance the Fed will hold its target lending rate at 2 percent on June 25, up from an 86 percent likelihood yesterday. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter-percentage point. Traders also see a 43 percent chance the central bank will lift the benchmark rate to 2.25 percent by year-end.

Worst housing slump in a quarter century

U.S. Treasuries were little changed, with 10-year yields close to the highest level since February, before the government sells $15 billion of the maturity today. The Treasury Department's auction today will be the biggest for 10-year notes in four years. The government will also sell $6 billion of 30-year bonds tomorrow as part of its quarterly refunding program.

The head of government bond trading for Standard Chartered quoted that he expects the Fed to be aggressive in the take back of all of the easings. According to him, we may see an increase of 75 to 100 bps in the Fed Funds rate a lot quicker than most people think. Well, the Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away I suppose.

Pending home sales fell 1 percent in March after a revised drop in February of 2.8 percent that was bigger than previously reported, according to the National Association of Realtors. Recent reports indicate the worst housing slump in a quarter of a century is far from abating. Purchases of new homes plunged in March to the lowest level in almost 17 years, while the median price fell the most in almost four decades, according to the Commerce Department.

Treasuries and jobless rate

Treasuries fell pushing the two-year note's yield to the highest since January, after a smaller-than- forecast loss of U.S. jobs in April led traders to bet the Federal Reserve will stop lowering borrowing costs. Two-year notes were on course for a third straight weekly decline amid speculation the Fed's rate cut this week will be its last. The two-year note yield rose to within 1.36 percentage points of 10-year rates, the closest in more than three months. The central bank has slashed its main rate a total of 3.25 percentage points since September to support the economy.
U.S. employers eliminated 20,000 jobs in April, after a decrease of 81,000 in March, the Labor Department said. The U.S. hasn't lost jobs for four straight months since 2003. The jobless rate fell to 5 percent, from 5.1 percent in March.
Traders see an 84 percent chance the Fed will leave its target rate for overnight loans between banks at 2 percent at its next scheduled meeting on June 25, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. That likelihood has risen from 80 percent yesterday. The rest of the bets are for the Fed to cut the rate to 1.75 percent.

Fed cut, Europe to head into recession.

Treasuries rose as home prices fell the most on record and U.S. consumer confidence sank, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate tomorrow and keep it low for longer than anticipated. Government debt began gaining earlier after Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest bank, reported its first quarterly loss in five years, underscoring concern financial institutions worldwide face additional losses linked to the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

The credit crisis is far from being over. The market's telling you the Fed's going to 2 percent tomorrow and will say in the statement they'll be in a sit-and-watch mode. The weak-economy type talk is pro-bonds. Today's home-price report is a reminder that the economy remains weak and housing has been a disaster, and we probably haven't seen a bottom in it yet.
Other reports this week will show the economy hardly grew in the first quarter and employers cut jobs in April for a fourth month, surveys forecast. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, reported a quarterly loss after writing down the value of loans for leveraged buyouts and asset-backed securities by 2.7 billion euros ($4.2 billion). Europe is next, England will probably be kicking the recession off over there.


Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent chance the Fed will trim its target for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 2 percent tomorrow, compared with a 78 percent likelihood yesterday. The balance of the bets is for no change in borrowing costs. Traders also see a slimmer chance the Fed will start lifting rates later this year. The likelihood of an increase to 2.5 percent at Fed meetings in September, October and December declined today, futures show.

ES Daily april 22 after hours

Looks like we have a channel.

Watch out for Rice prices

Watch out for Wheat prices

Oil to break $120

Banks and Financials need a higher market to keep the creditors at bay and to keep the expected 250,000 homes that haven't recieved their Notice of Defaults off their books.

Although we are seeing a slight uptick in home purchases compared to last month, the numbers of foreclosures are up 57% over last year and expecting bigger numbers in the months ahead.

Dollar also looks like it might get a bit of a break as the Bank of England is stepping in to help out with the Financial companies that have big losses in subprime. Holland, Belgium and England are also entering their first rounds of Foreclosures as overpriced properties have hit their highs and starting to plummet.

China's economy is the strongest it has ever been expecting the largest GDP % move ever......

Fear is resceding is the bull back?

U.S. Treasury notes fell, pushing yields to the highest since February, as traders speculated the Federal Reserve will stop cutting interest rates after this month.

Fear is receding. People are looking at where fed funds is going to be, maybe settling in at 2 percent, and saying do we really want to own two-year notes at 1.5 percent if things are settling, if there's less risk to the system. Traders added to bets the Fed will cut its target rate by just a quarter-point to 2 percent on April 30. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 76 percent chance of that size reduction, up from 58 percent a week ago. The rest of the bets are on a half-point cut. Traders now see a better-than-even chance the rate will stay at 2 percent through next quarter.

Swap spreads widened amid the increase in Libor rates, which typically signals a decline in risk appetite. The spread between Treasury yields and the rate on a two-year interest-rate swap, used to hedge against interest-rate swings, reached as wide as 101.88 basis points, from 96.25 yesterday. Rising swap rates can lead investors who are receiving fixed payments to sell Treasuries to hedge the risk that rates will rise.

treasuries fall inflation increases oil going up

Treasuries fell a second straight day as wholesale prices rose at almost double the pace forecast and New York manufacturing unexpectedly grew, fanning concern that inflation will quicken. Demand increased for inflation-linked Treasuries after the reports as investors sought protection from the risk that six Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts since September will fuel economic growth. Crude oil set a record high today. The price report is a wake-up call that's there is still inflation pressure.

Crude oil climbed above $113 a barrel, the highest since futures began trading in 1983, on supply disruptions in Nigeria and Mexico.

Inflation expectations increased a fourth straight day, Treasury yields indicate. Given what inflation is doing, it makes it more difficult for the Fed'' to lower rates or increase cash in the banking system.

GE leads the market down fed had 6 rate cuts

Treasuries rose, heading for a weekly gain, after General Electric Co. reported its first quarterly drop in profit since 2003 and U.S. consumer confidence slumped to the lowest in 26 years. The Treasury market has priced in a recession and very weak economic data, if things get worse, we're going to see another leg down in interest rates.

U.S. stocks fell after GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, said first-quarter earnings slumped 12 percent because of an inability to sell some assets and higher-than-forecast losses at its finance businesses. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1 percent, the most in two weeks.

Traders increased bets the Fed will add to its six rate cuts since September to bolster economic growth, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Traders see a 52 percent chance the Fed will lower its rate for overnight lending between banks by a half-point to 1.75 percent on April 30. The likelihood of a cut that big hasn't been above 50 percent since March 31. Futures also indicate a 21 percent chance the Fed will lower the rate to 1.5 percent by June.

$75 billion in treasuries next week, any buyers?

In a sign investors' loss of confidence in credit markets is deepening, rates on three-month Treasury bills fell to the lowest level since 1954. The Fed will auction $75 billion in Treasuries next week in exchange for an expanded array of collateral to ease the logjam in lending. Treasury prices are at unsustainable levels and we've completely backed away from the market.
Fed policy makers on March 18 cut their target lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent, saying ``measures of inflation expectations have risen.'' The cut was smaller than the 1 percentage point traders had expected with 90 percent certainty before the meeting.

This week, a solid majority of panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. About one-quarter think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Treasury notes and Elevated inflation

Treasury 10-year notes rose, erasing half of yesterday's losses, on speculation the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in cutting interest rates and focus on inflation. The difference in yields between two- and 10-year notes narrowed for a third day as traders pared bets the Fed will reduce the target lending rate by a half-percentage point at its April 30 meeting. Policy makers cut borrowing costs less than expected yesterday, saying inflation remained ``elevated.''

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 70 percent odds the Fed will cut the 2.25 percent lending target by a half- percentage point at its meeting on April 30, compared with an 88 percent chance yesterday. The rest of the bets are for a quarter-point reduction.

Gold, used to hedge against rising prices, plunged the most since June 2006, falling 4.1 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude oil for April delivery fell $2.04, or 1.9 percent, to $107.38 a barrel. Treasuries tumbled yesterday, pushing up two-year note yields by the most since 2001, after the Fed cut the target lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent and said measures of inflation are ``elevated.''

Gold hit $1,033, Oil $112 Dollar dives

The Fed announced two initiatives designed to bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning, and approved the JP Morgan - Bear Stearns deal. First, they authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to create a lending facility to improve the ability of primary dealers to provide financing to participants in securitization markets.

It is available today, and will be in place for at least six months and may be extended as conditions warrant. Credit extended to primary dealers under this facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment-grade debt securities.

Second, the Federal Reserve Board decreased the primary credit rate ("Discount Rate") from 3.5% to 3.25%. Lastly, the Board also approved the financing arrangement announced by JPMorgan Chase and Bear Stearns where Bear is being purchased for 1% of its value only 16 days ago! Tomorrow, the FOMC will meet, and obviously the odds that the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate by 1.0% have increased. Mortgage prices are really a mixed bag ("where should they be priced?") with the 10-yr down to 3.41% currently.

When will rates get better? S&P 500 is starting to fall.

Looking back to Friday, we had a nice improvement in both Treasury rates and mortgage prices after the payroll numbers indicated that labor is indeed slowing. The market believes that the Fed will lower overnight interest rates by 75 bps at the FOMC meeting next Tuesday, and some think that Fed Funds may eventually hit 2.0%. Friday's job report had very little "good" news for the economy, as NonFarm payrolls dropped for the second consecutive month, with back-month revisions downward, and most industries showed job losses.

This week we'll see the US trade deficit report tomorrow (expected -$59 billion), Thursday's weekly jobless claims (expected +4k to 355k), February Retail Sales (expected +0.8%), and then on Friday the Consumer Price Index for February (expected +0.3%) and the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence report (expected -0.4). Currently the 10-yr is at 3.53% and mortgages are roughly unchanged from Friday.


So here's the $100 million question.... When the heck are mortgage prices going to improve? Why is the 10-yr Treasury down into the 3.5% range, yet conforming/conventional 30-yr loans, eligible for FNMA & FHLMC, back up into the 6% range? The widening that is occurring out to these levels, which statistically speaking happens once every 4,000 years, is a combination of several factors.

First, investors and money managers feel safer putting their money into Treasury securities rather than mortgage-related securities (right now, that seems like a "no brainer") Subjecting their money to the potential of borrowers defaulting and property depreciation is something that many prefer not to do. These two factors have led to losses for FNMA & FHLMC, along with others, and some investors have been selling mortgage securities in order to meet capital requirements. And selling has led to lower prices, and thus higher rates. That's it in a nut shell.

Treasuries were little changed with two-year note yields near the lowest in almost four years deterring investors and Federal Reserve officials indicating the U.S. economy remains under pressure from the housing slowdown, credit debt, bonds and bond insurers.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for more borrowers whose home values have declined, and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said U.S. banks face ``challenging market conditions.'' Bernanke, in remarks at a conference in Orlando, Florida, said more must be done to stem foreclosures. ``Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,'' he said. ``Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.''

In a sign the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark lending rate by a half-percentage point and signaled it will have to act again to offset a slump in exports to the U.S. The slowdown in the U.S. is beginning to have a greater effect on the rest of the world. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, may need additional capital from outside investors as losses stemming from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market increase.

First it will hit America/Canada, next will be Britan then Europe. Expect to see new high against the dollar across the board.

$4.20 a gallon gas could be coming for this summer.

We shall see.