S&P 500 and the economy Obama's pledge

Stocks rose around the world, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a one-month high, as President-elect Barack Obama pledged to boost the economy with the biggest public-works spending package since the 1950s. Obama said Dec. 6 he will boost investment in roads, bridges and public buildings to create or preserve 2.5 million jobs after companies cut payrolls at the fastest pace in 34 years.

Traders increased bets the Fed will lower its target rate on overnight loans between banks to 0.25 percent from 1 percent on Dec. 16 after companies cut workers at the fastest pace in 34 years in November. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show 76 percent odds of a three-quarter-percentage point cut, up from 26 percent a week ago.

The U.S. is starting to look like Japan in the 1990s, when the Bank of Japan struggled to revive growth as the combination of deflation and recessions stranded the nation in the so-called Lost Decade. Yields on Treasuries are falling as the government sells a record amount of debt to prop up the American economy.

S&P 500 Emini Futures Day trading live

Consumer confidence at low, Fed to cut wed.

Stocks came roaring out of the gate this morning with The Dow up 300 points, but the rally lost momentum when The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey came in with its lowest reading since the monthly surveys began in 1967. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today and tomorrow. Their Policy Statement is due for release at 11am tomorrow and it's widely expected that we'll see at least a 50 basis point cut in the Fed Funds Rate.

Central banks, the fed and more money into the pool

Overnight Central Banks around the world, including our Federal Reserve, almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the crisis.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Canada, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' Investors stockpiled money on concern more financial institutions would fail after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the problems with AIG. The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt climbed to a record yesterday.

Watch yourelf out there.
Emini Trading Coach

Sept. 3 S&P 500 emini futures daily chart after hours

We are very propped up the Fed gave us a very light reading on the market. There is so much going on from Credit, inability of lenders to lend because of underwriting and we are going into the worst part of the Real Estate Market sales season.

Oil is loosing its catalyst of market movement, we shall see some large energy funds close out and give their investors a little money bank.

We are in a very tight trade channel, and when it successfully breaks out it we could see some very violent moves.

Oil looks like it is at a low so we shall see.

Dollar is also holding its strength.

How do you spell Recession?

Treasury two-year notes headed for the biggest five-day gain in three weeks after the Federal Reserve signaled it won't raise interest rates in coming months and the central bank's preferred inflation measure rose less than economists forecast.

Traders pushed two-year note yields to the lowest level in almost three weeks after U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 28- year low. Demand for the safety of government debt also rose as financial news network CNBC reported Merrill Lynch & Co. may post a second-quarter loss and write down the value of mortgage- related assets by as much as $5 billion, citing unidentified people.

Treasuries are still headed for their biggest quarterly loss in four years because of speculation in past weeks that rising energy prices would prompt the Fed to boost interest rates.
With the economy in a slump, and with prices rising rapidly, the Fed has found itself in a dilemma. Short-term rates already are low, and if the central bank cuts them more to stimulate economic growth, then prices could rise even faster and get out of control. If the Fed raises short-term rates, the result could be a recession (or a deeper recession, if the economy already is in one) and a delayed recovery. The economy cannot handle interest-rate increases. On the other hand, inflation pressure is going up. They're stuck between inflation and recession.

june 27 SP 500 gap up to 1295 1300 then fall

Looks like we are going to gap up after todays action and then fall again. Nothing looks that positive except for the "opportunities that are available for the gullible. It is still a little early for real estate unless you are cash positive. Be careful out there. The Bond underwriters are all loosing their ratings and their stock is becoming worthless.

May 19 SP 500 Daily Breaking the Trend Line

SP 500 Daily, we have broken the Trend Line, we could see a little consolidation in this range until the next round of news to send us in a direction.

Oil is going to hit our market harder this month if we break $140 a barrel. Today we hit 1323.875 in Electronic trading. Watchout middle america your real income is dropping.

It seems the Fed is finally seeing the light of day and moved out of their cave. Announcing that there is some inflation and that out side of oil and food there have been price increases. Makes it sound like the bankers only eat expensive things that have really been affected by shipping and gas prices.

treasuries fall inflation increases oil going up

Treasuries fell a second straight day as wholesale prices rose at almost double the pace forecast and New York manufacturing unexpectedly grew, fanning concern that inflation will quicken. Demand increased for inflation-linked Treasuries after the reports as investors sought protection from the risk that six Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts since September will fuel economic growth. Crude oil set a record high today. The price report is a wake-up call that's there is still inflation pressure.

Crude oil climbed above $113 a barrel, the highest since futures began trading in 1983, on supply disruptions in Nigeria and Mexico.

Inflation expectations increased a fourth straight day, Treasury yields indicate. Given what inflation is doing, it makes it more difficult for the Fed'' to lower rates or increase cash in the banking system.

GE leads the market down fed had 6 rate cuts

Treasuries rose, heading for a weekly gain, after General Electric Co. reported its first quarterly drop in profit since 2003 and U.S. consumer confidence slumped to the lowest in 26 years. The Treasury market has priced in a recession and very weak economic data, if things get worse, we're going to see another leg down in interest rates.

U.S. stocks fell after GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, said first-quarter earnings slumped 12 percent because of an inability to sell some assets and higher-than-forecast losses at its finance businesses. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1 percent, the most in two weeks.

Traders increased bets the Fed will add to its six rate cuts since September to bolster economic growth, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Traders see a 52 percent chance the Fed will lower its rate for overnight lending between banks by a half-point to 1.75 percent on April 30. The likelihood of a cut that big hasn't been above 50 percent since March 31. Futures also indicate a 21 percent chance the Fed will lower the rate to 1.5 percent by June.

SP 500 daily April 4 targets hit

The fed at work again, even after horrible employment figures we have support ending the day in a doji.

Looks like the market will be hit next week.

63000 jobs cut fed fund rates cut 75 basis points too

The February jobs report came in remarkably weaker than expected by dropping another 63,000, causing the Fed to aggressively cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points. February’s decline in payroll jobs, the largest such decrease since a colossal 212,000 fall in March 2003, was notably worse than the consensus projection for a 25,000 rebound and mar ked a third consecutive month of decline.

Exacerbating the situation, not only did February come in weak, but the prior two months were also revised down. The initial January estimate of a 17,000 drop was revised down 5,000, while December was revised down 41,000 from the previous estimate of an 82,000 increase. For Janu ary and December combined, the net revision was down 46,000, indicative of a very clear downward path. February also marked a full year of payroll survey weakness in the goods-producing sectors, with both construction and manufacturing entering its 21st consecutive monthly decline.
Several key factors are thought to have influenced the February NFP report.

They include:
* Government payroll expected to add just 15K to March payrolls
* Private service providing payrolls expected to edge just -5K lower, from -12K in February and a 100K average in Q4

Unemployment rate expected to rebound to 4.9% following December’s 5% high
For week ending March 29, 2008, the Department of Labor reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 407,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 369,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 374,500, a n increase of 15,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 358,750.
The back-to-back payroll declines that started 2008 is disturbing for the economy as the weaker growth has become more broad-based and trend like. Payrolls have shown weaker growth for four months from a 140K gain in October. Unemployment is rising from the March low of 4.4% but fell to 4.8% in February after reaching 5% in December. Employment trends lag the economy as final demand—in excess of labor productivity—feeds in to labor demand. Earnings growth is fading and stands at 3.7% compared to the 4.3% yoy high of late 2006. The loosening labor market is being watched for signs of unraveling—which many analysts will say has arrived in the payroll data.

What is the non-farm payroll report?
Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly US NFP report is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market.
The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month’s numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading.

What’s more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the US economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the US dollar.