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Tuesday, July 22, 2008

July 22 SP 500 Emini Daily


It was the 3.5 million volume spike that changed our direction. I mentioned this about two weeks ago that the turnaround would come after a volume sell off. The market makers are luring in a fresh batch of investors that will supposedly be buying the bargains. Watch out, don't fall in love with this rally, another investor spike will turn this around and the market makers will wipe this rally out.
Financials have had a little rally because things aren't as bad as they seem. It is bad......we will see in the next few weeks.
With all the support the financials are getting naked shorts out of the market on Banking stocks I expect a rally to previous swing high (1278) and then we will see who will be taking profits.
Will be a big day for xlf, rkh, bac, c, wfc, and wb.
After that who knows, we might see some consolidation or profit taking.
This is an example of a letter I recieved about shorting the big guys:
IMMEDIATE CHANGES TO CERTAIN US BANKING SECTOR CFDsOn 15 July 2008, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) issued an emergency order (“ SEC Order”) that was created to protect investors against the “naked” short selling of 19 US traded financial companies. The SEC Order will be effective from today Monday, 21 July 2008.The SEC Order means that no person may short sell any of the 19 listed CFDs or Stocks, unless they have borrowed, or arranged to borrow, the security prior to affecting the sale, and deliver the security on the settlement date. This means that that a client must have borrowed the security, or arranged to borrow it, prior to executing a short sale. As it is now, the SEC Order will be effective from Monday, 21 July 2008 through to 11:59 p.m. EDT on 29 July 2
Bank of America (BACnys) • Citigroup Inc. (Cnys) • Credit Suisse Group (CSnys) • Allianz SE (AZnys) • Goldman Sachs (GSnys) • JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPMnys) • Lehman Brothers (LEHnys) • Merrill Lynch (MERnys) • Morgan Stanley (MSnys)
INSTRUMENTS ALREADY SET AS NON-SHORTABLE (PRIOR TO THE SEC ORDER)• Barclays Plc (BCSnys) • Deutsche Bank AG (DBnys) • Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBSnys) • UBS AG (UBSnys) • Freddie Mac (FREnys) • Fannie Mae (FNMnys)
ADDITIONAL SECURITIES AFFECTED BY THE SEC ORDER BUT NOT OFFERED BY SAXO BANK• BNP Paribas • Daiwa Securities Group Inc. • HSBC Holdings Plc • Mizuho Financial
Best regards,Saxo Bank
Rally away boys.

Treasuries, Bonds and bail out.

Treasuries fell as Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' and traders prepared for the sale of $58 billion in government debt this week.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to revive U.S. mortgage financing depends on investors buying the same kind of bonds they're shunning in Europe. Paulson wants to create a version of Europe's market for covered bonds in the U.S. just as sales of the debt have fallen to a six-month low and prices have dropped 2.5 percent this year. While the securities are backed by loans and bank assets to get AAA ratings, most are valued, on average, as if they were three levels lower. As I have mentioned before the insurers for these bonds are ll going under. This could be our next crisis.

Developing a U.S. market for the securities is the latest of Paulson's initiatives to revive lending among banks crippled by $452 billion of credit losses and writedowns. His plan for a ``SuperSIV'' to bail out the $400 billion market for structured investment vehicles(What planet is our government from?) failed last year after Wall Street firms rescued the credit funds independently. Both Democratic and Republican senators are looking for changes in the Treasury secretary's proposal this month to shore up home lending by allowing the government to buy stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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