Aug 14 S&P 500 and economy

The Labor Department said that Jobless Claims fell by 10,000 last week to 450k, but remained at levels that show strained labor markets. This is above the 432k that had been forecast although it was the first time that weekly claims fell since early July. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims climbed to 440,500 last week from 421,000 the week before - the highest reading in more than six years.

We also had July's Consumer Price Index, rising at twice the rate expected and showing the fastest rate of year-over-year growth in 17-1/2 years! The CPI was +.8% in July after being +1.1% in June. Prices were up 5.6 percent from a year ago, the sharpest year-over-year rise since 5.7 percent in January 1991. That was also well above the 5.1 percent increase that economists had forecast. The core CPI (ex-food & energy) still was +0.3% in July, above forecasts. Energy prices are coming down, and there is no meaningful probability of Fed rate hikes until things stabilize. After this news, the 10-yr continues to hover around 3.90% and mortgages are unchanged so far.

Aug 12 Daily chart SP 500 emini futures

S&P 500 has followed the support trend line in this move up towards the 1322.5 open gap and the 50% retracement.

Today's close will be the key for this continuation of the midterm retracement. Below 1280 and we will probably be heading back to the lows.

Master something, knowing is not doing.

Herbert Simon, Nobel laureate: "A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention." Fr. Rohit Bhargava's book.

Just used this quote with a group of technical traders that make no money. After an hour of debating and listening to their positions I noticed that they all shared one thing in common. Alot of information, no ability. They were lacking the ability to execute a profitable trade and manage the money once in the trade.

Simple is better. Learning to consistently manage your trade once you are in to get the maxim benefit is the key. Mastery is not how much you know, it is how well you use what you know. So check your self. Quantify your trades, sometimes what you think and the reality of what you do is different.

Master, Master, Master.....