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Thursday, February 11, 2010

Forex trading London Close notes

Forex day trading 3rd long signal A combination of Australian and Chinese data has given the markets a bullish tone in the Asian session. In Australia better than expected employment data, with the headline unemployment rate dropping to 5.3% vs 5.6% exp, made the next RBA rate hike less far off. While weaker Chinese inflation data for Jan which printed at 1.5% vs 2.1% exp help to ease worries over near-term PBoC tightening. But the big driver of FX markets continue to be Greek and potential bailout. Wire are buzzing with comments. Weeding thru the speculative analysis, anonymous official's comments and media articles, we have garnered that Greece will be discussed at the EU Summit in Brussels at 12.00cet and leaders are likely to demand more details on deficit trimming strategies. Also we expect that no concrete steps, such as the announcement of an aid package, will be taken (despite a massive flood of comments). In addition, Lower House of the German Parliament has ruled that the Maastricht Treaty will not allow EU member countries to assume or guarantee the debt of any other member. Which makes the solution more complicated and nearly impossible for Germany to provide financial aid alone. At this point more talk will not help the EUR and we continue to expect sovereign credit concerns to keep the single currency weak.

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