Monday, April 19, 2010

EURUSD risk appetite US close

Forex day trading EurUsd Risk appetite has continued to struggle since the Goldman inspired equity market slump on Friday, and EURUSD has also been weighed by the ash-triggered paralysis of European travel networks and the possibility of Greece activating the EU/IMF bailout mechanism appearing ever closer. We are now approaching a critical juncture for the pair, with 1.3370-1.3400 representing the last major cushion of support before 1.3268 levels not seen since 25 March. We see the 3-week uptrend support level coming in around 1.3400, backed up by a former pivot level at 1.3385 –but the crucial line to watch from here is the back side of the former 4-month downtrend at 1.3370. As such, we like the idea of a small long trade on any dip towards 1.3520, with a stop just below those major supports, but remain flexible to reversing this bias should the former downtrend line fail. Levels on the topside are now 1.3568 (50-day moving average), followed by 1.3590, then last Monday's opening highs of 1.3692.

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